ƪǀƬŰţƹƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƾƤǀƠƬţŵźĪƿƹŹŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝƲƷōƵřŹƾƿřŹŚĩŵƺŞƸŝ ƾƬƿŹƶĪŞƃŹŵŹŚŝƪưůƮŤƀǀſƽŵŹƺƯƶƘƫŚƐƯžŚƷƵŵřŵƾƄƃƺě
ƱřźƿřƾƯLjſřƽŹƺƸưū
ƽŹŚƤƠƫřƹŷƲƀůƹ *ƵřƺųźǀųƱŚƯŚſźǀƯř
1268732040128

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Downloaded from ijiepm.iust.ac.ir at 16:17 IRST on Saturday November 4th 2017

ƵŶǀĪģƽŶǀƬĩšŚưƬĩ

ƁƹŹĨưĩƶŝƱřźƿřƾƯLjſřƽŹƺƸưūƾƬƿŹƪƤƳƹƪưůƶĪŞƃŹŵŹŚŝƪưůƮŤƀǀſƶƫŚƤƯƲƿřŹŵŶƯŚƄǀěƶŤƀƀĭƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ
ƶĩ ŶƷŵƾƯ ƱŚƄƳ ƩŶƯ ƪǀƬŰţ Ţſř ƵŶƃ ƽŻŚƀƫŶƯ ŶƯŚƄǀě ƶŤƀƀĭ ƽŚƷƮŤƀǀſ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ
ŵřŶƘţŚţŵŹřŵƾĮŤƀŝřƹƶĪŞƃƽŚƷƵŚĮŤƀƿřŹŵƽźǀĭŹŚŝƹƶǀƬŴţšŚƳŚĪƯřƶŝźŤƄǀŝƮŤƀǀſŢǀƟźƓƾƿřŹŚĩ
ƶƴǀƸŝŵřŶƘţƲǀǀƘţƶŬǀŤƳŹŵƹŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţƽŻŚſƪƣřŶůƶƫŚƤƯƲƿřŹŵřŸƫŚƷƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫƹŚƷƲĭřƹŚƷƵŵřŵƾƄƃƺěƪǀƬŰţ
ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝŢſřƵŶƃƶŤƟźĭźƔƳŹŵƮŤƀǀſƾƿřŹŚĩŵƺŞƸŝƽŚƸƷřŹŻřƾĪƿƱřƺƴƗƶŝŚƷƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ ƱřźƿřƾƯLjſřƽŹƺƸưūƲƷōƵřŹ
ŵƺūƺƯƽŚƷƲĭřƹƪĩéŻřƂǀŝƶĩŶƷŵƾƯƱŚƄƳƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƁƹŹƶƬǀſƹƶŝƮŤƀǀſ

ƱřżǀƯžƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝŻřŶƘŝƶĪŞƃƾƿřŹŚĩŌŚƤţŹřƱřżǀƯƪǀƬŰţŹƺƔƴƯƶŝŢſřŻŚǀƳźŝŵřŻŚƯƶĪŞƃŹŵ
ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ Żř žě ƹ ƪŞƣ Źŵ ŚƷƵŵřŵ ƾƄƃƺě ƪǀƬŰţ ƁƹŹ Żř ƵŵŚƠŤſř Śŝ ƞƬŤŴƯ ƾůřƺƳ ƾƿřŹŚĩ
ƩŚů Źŵ ŹŚŝ ƂŴŝ Źŵ ƾƬƿŹ ƪƤƳƹƪưů ƮŤƀǀſ ŶƷŵƾƯ ƱŚƄƳ ŪƿŚŤƳ Ţſř ƵŶƃ ƶƀƿŚƤƯ ƹ ƾŝŚƿŻŹř ƂƿřżƟř ê Żř Ƃǀŝ ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ Żř ŶƘŝ ƶĩ ŶƴĩƾƯ ŢǀƫŚƘƟ ƾưſř ŢǀƟźƓ źƿŻ æî ŵƹŶů źƋŚů

ƾƬƘƟ ƪŰƯ Źŵ æèåë ƩŚſ Źŵ Ʊřźƿř ƽźſřźſ ƲƷōƵřŹ ŢųŚſ ƲƷōƵřŹƱŚưŤųŚſľŚưſŹŢƣƹƱŚưƷŻřƹŶƃƕƹźƃƱřźƸţƵŚĮŤƀƿř
ƶŝ ƶūƺţ Śŝ >æ@ Ŷƿŵźĭ ŻŚƛō ƩŚưƃ żƧźƯ śƺƴū ƶƐƤƳ ƶſ Żř ƲƷō ƵřŹ ƶŝ Ʊō ƩŚƈţř ƹ Ʊřźƿř ƾƯLjſř ƽŹƺƸưū ƲƷōƵřŹ ƶƘſƺţ ƵƹŚūŚƠƬūžųźſƽŻřŹƽŚƷƵŚĮŤƀƿřƢƿźƏŻřŚěƹŹřƹƶƳŚǀƯŹƹŚų ƽŹřŵźŝƵźƸŝƹƢǀƣŵƽżƿŹƶƯŚƳźŝŶƴƯŻŚǀƳžƾƿŚƿŹŵƾƿŚƷƩŚƴǀƯźţƹ ƹŹŚŝƾƿŚŬŝŚūŹŵƾƿŚƟƺĪƃƹŶƃŹƶŝƶĩŢſřƱŚĭƹŚƳŻřŮǀŰƇ
ƂƷŚĩƹƾƬƿŹƾŤƿżƳřźţƵƺƤƫŚŝƪǀƀƳŚŤěŻřƶƴǀƸŝƵŵŚƠŤſřƹźƟŚƀƯ ƾƿřŹŚĩ ƂƿřżƟř ƹ ƱŚĭƹŚƳ Ŷǀƫƺţ ƹ Ŷƿźų ƽLJŚŝ ŹŚǀƀŝ ƽŚƷƶƴƿżƷ ƍƺƐųźŤƯƺƬǀĩîåèëŻřƲƷōƵřŹźƋŚůƩŚůŹŵŶƃŶƷřƺųźŬƴƯ æëåíƽŹŚŝƲĭřƹçæìçëƾƗźƟƍƺƐųźŤƯƺƬǀĩçéêìƾƬƇř ƶǀůŚƳ æé ƹ ƾƬƇř ƵŚĮŤƀƿř éåç ƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ ëèë ƽźƟŚƀƯ Ʋĭřƹ źƟŚƀƯ źƠƳ ŹřżƷ çëççê íì ƩŚſ Źŵ Ţſř ŹřŵŹƺųźŝ ƾƬƇř
ƹ ŹŚŝ Ʋţ ŹřżƷ èèåéé źƟŚƀƯ źŤƯƺƬǀĩ źƠƳ ƱƺǀƬǀƯ æêèæç
ŢſřƵŶƃŚŬŝŚūƲƷōƵřŹƎſƺţŹŚŝźŤƯƺƬǀĩƲţƱƺǀƬǀƯçåêéå >ç@ ŢƃřŵŶƷřƺųƾƿřŹŚĩ
ÎƶƯŶƤƯ æ
ƹLJŚĩƾƿŚŬŝŚūŹŵLJŚŝŢǀƟźƓŚŝƹřŹŚĩƽřƶƬǀſƹƱřƺƴƗƶŝƲƷōƵřŹ Źŵ ƲƷō ƵřŹ ƂƤƳ ŵŹřŵ ŹƺƄĩ źƷ ŵŚƈŤƣř Źŵ ƾưƸƯ ƂƤƳ źƟŚƀƯ ƪĩ Źŵ ƽŵŚƈŤƣř ƹ ƾŤǀƘưū żĩřźƯ Ʊŵƺŝ ƵŶƴĩřźě ƪǀƫŵ ƶŝ Ʊřźƿř ŹřŵŹƺųźŝ ƾƿLJŚŝ ŢǀưƷř Żř ŚƸƳō Ʋǀŝ ŵŚƿŻ ľŚŤŞƀƳ ŢƟŚƀƯ ƹ ŹƺƄĩ ƽŚƷƵĥƹźě Ɩƿźſ ƽŹƹō ŵƺſ ƭŶƗ ƹ ƾƫŚƯ ƖŝŚƴƯ ŢƿŵƹŶŰƯ Ţſř ƹ Ţſř ƲƷōƵřŹ ƶĪŞƃ ƁźŤƀĭ ƾƬƇř ƖƳřƺƯ Żř ƲƷōƵřŹ ƾƿŚƴŝźƿŻ
ơƺƟŢǀưƷřŻřŵƺūƺƯšŚƳŚĪƯřƹƖŝŚƴƯŻřƶƴǀƸŝƵŵŚƠŤſřƲƿřźŝŚƴŝ
ŢſřŹřŵŹƺųźŝƽřƵŵŚƘƫř

îåçæçƩƺƇƹŲƿŹŚţ îåèçêŜƿƺƈţŲƿŹŚţ
ƾưƬƗ ŢŘǀƷ ƺƌƗ Ƶřƺųźǀų ƱŚƯŚſźǀƯř źŤĩŵ ƶƫŚƤƯ ƩƺŘƀƯ ƵŶƴƀƿƺƳ*

ŚƴǀſƾƬƗƺŝƵŚĮƄƳřŵƾſŶƴƸƯƵŶĪƄƳřŵƖƿŚƴƇƾſŶƴƸƯƵƹźĭ
Kheirkhah@basu.ac.ir
Śƴǀſ ƾƬƗƺŝ ƵŚĮƄƳřŵ ƖƿŚƴƇ ƾſŶƴƸƯ ŶƃŹř ƾſŚƴƃŹŚĩ įŹŚƤƠƫřƹŷ Ʋƀů
HassanZolfaghari@gmail.com
çêêƽŹŚƤƠƫřƹŷƲƀůƹƵřƺųźǀųƱŚƯŚſźǀƯřƪǀƬŰţƹƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƾƤǀƠƬţŵźĪƿƹŹŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝƲƷōƵřŹƾƿřŹŚĩŵƺŞƸŝ

ƶƫŚƀƯ ŵŹƺƯ Źŵ >æç@ ƱřŹŚĪưƷ ƹ ŚƳŚƿŵ çååë ƩŚſ Źŵ >ææ@ žƿƹźſ Ĩƿ ŵŚŬƿř ƽřźŝ ŻŚǀƳ ŵŹƺƯ ƶǀƬƤƳ ƶƬǀſƹ ŵřŶƘţ ƲǀǀƘţ Ǝſƺţ ƵŶƃ ƲǀǀƘţ Ƃǀě Żř ŢǀƠǀĩ Ĩƿ Śŝ ƺĮŴſŚě ƪƤƳƹƪưů ƝřźŰƳřƭƺưƿżĩŚƯƹ ŚƷƞƣƺţ Źŵ ŹŚƔŤƳřƽŚƷƱŚƯŻ Ŝƀůźŝ źŝŹŚĩ Śŝ>æè@ƱřŹŚĪưƷƹƲƿƹŵŚĭçååíƩŚſŹŵŶƳřƵŵźĩƢǀƤŰţžŻŚŬƯ
ƱŚĭƹŚƳƵŻřŶƳřƽřźŝƽźǀŝŶţƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃźŝƾƴŞƯŵźĪƿƹŹŻřƵŵŚƠŤſř
ŶƳřƵŵźĩŵŚƸƴƄǀěŚƷƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ ĨǀĪƠţ ƱƹŶŝ ŚěƹŹř ƽŚƷƲƷōƵřŹ ƾƿřŹŚĩ ƾŝŚƿŻŹř ƶŝ >æé@ ŽƺŤƳŚĩ ŚƷƵŵřŵ ƾƄƃƺě ƪǀƬŰţ Żř ƵŵŚƠŤſř Śŝ ƽźƟŚƀƯ ƹ ƽŹŚŝ ƂŴŝ ŚŝƶŤƟźĭƭŚŬƳřŚǀƳŚĜſřŹƺƄĩŹŵƶĩƶƘƫŚƐƯƲƿřŹŵŢſřƶŤųřŵźě ƶŤųřŵźěŚƸƳōƾƿřŹŚĩƾŝŚƿŻŹřƶŝƾƿŚěƹŹřŹƺƄĩæëƲŤƟźĭźƔƳŹŵ ŶŗƺſƽŚƷŹƺƄĩƲƷōƵřŹƶƘƫŚƐƯƲƿřŻřƪƇŚůŪƿŚŤƳƶŝƶūƺţŚŝƶĩ ƽŚƷŹƺƄĩ ƲƷōƵřŹ ƹ ƾƿřŹŚĩ ƲƿźţLJŚŝ Żř ŶƴƬƷ ƹ ŶƳLjƴƟ žǀŗƺſ ƾƯŹřŵŹƺųźŝƾƿřŹŚĩƲƿźţƲǀƿŚěŻřƱŚƳƺƿƹŶƴƫźƿřħŹŚưƳřŵĥƹźƳ
ƪǀƬŰţƩŶƯŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝ>æê@ƲǀƫƹƺƿçååíƩŚſŹŵŶƴƃŚŝ ƲǀưŴţƽřźŝƱŚƯżưƷŹƺƐŝƶƟŶƷŶƴģƽřƶĪŞƃŚƷƵŵřŵƾƄƃƺě ƹŹŚŝƂŴŝŹŵƾƴƟƾƄŴŝźŧřƹšŚƯŶųƾƄŴŝźŧřƾƴƟƾƿřŹŚĩ ƹ ŚƷƺŬŤƀū ƢŞƏŶƳřƶŤƟźĭŹŚĪŝƾŝŚŴŤƳřƲƷōƵřŹçåƽřźŝźƟŚƀƯ ŢƸūVRSƩŶƯ ŻřŚǀƫřźŤſř Źŵ ŚƸƴţ ƱƺƴƧŚţ ƲǀƤƤŰƯ ƽŚƷƶŤƟŚƿ ƂƷƹĦě Ʋƿř ŢſřƵŶƃ ƵŵŚƠŤſř ŚǀƳŵ ƽŚƷƲƷōƵřŹ Żř ƾųźŝ ƶƀƿŚƤƯ šŹƺƇ ƽŵLjǀƯæîîî ƩŚſ Źŵ>æë@ƽŹƹƵźƸŝ ƱƺǀƀǀưƧ Ǝſƺţ çç ƽŚƷƲƷōƵřŹ Śŝ ŚǀƫřźŤſřƽŚƷƲƷōƵřŹ ƢǀƤŰţ Ʋƿř ŹŵŢſř ƶŤƟźĭ źŤƯřŹŚě ë ƹ ƽŵƹŹƹ źŤƯřŹŚě韍ƯřŹŚě æå Żř ƵŵŚƠŤſř Śŝ ƹ ŹƺƄƧ
ŶƳřƵŶƃ ƶƀƿŚƤƯƾūƹźų ƪů ƹ ƽŻŚƀƫŶƯ ƶŝ >æì@ ƱŚƸǀŝ ƹ ŚƿŚĪƴǀĪƫŚƿ çååî ƩŚſ Źŵ Źŵ śřƺū ŮƐſ ƁƹŹ ƹ ŶƯŚƄǀě ƶŤƀƀĭ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ źŝ ƾƴŤŞƯ ŶƴƿōźƟŹŵƱřźƟŚƀƯźǀſƱŚƯŻƲǀĮƳŚǀƯƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƶƫŚƀƯŚŝƶƐŝřŹ ƱřŹŚĪưƷ ƹ ƵŵřŻō çååí ƩŚſ Źŵ ŶƳřƶŤųřŵźě ƹźŤƯ ƽżƿŹƶƯŚƳźŝ ƽźţƺǀĜƯŚĩ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ Śŝ AHP ƹ DEA ƽŻŚſƶģŹŚĜĪƿ Śŝ >æí@ ƹƪĄěŶƳřƵŵźĩƵŵŚƠŤſřƲƷōƵřŹƮŤƀǀſƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƹŵƺŞƸŝƽřźŝ
řŹ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ƩŶƯ ĨǀŤƳĥ ƽŚƷƮŤƿŹƺĮƫř Żř ƵŵŚƠŤſř Śŝ ƱřŹŚĪưƷ >æî@ŶƳřƵŵźĩƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ
ƽŵŚƸƴƄǀěƁƹŹè
ŵźĪƿƹŹ Śŝ ƾƬƿŹ ƶĪŞƃ Źŵ ŹŚŝ ƪưů ƮŤƀǀſ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ  ƽŻŚſ ƶǀŞƃ ŶƯŚƄǀě ƶŤƀƀĭ ƽŚƷƮŤƀǀſƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ
ƵŵƺŝƱŚƯŻŢƃŸĭŚŝƾƘƣřƹŶƴƿōźƟŚƿƮŤƀǀſĨƿŻřƽŶǀƬƤţ ƽŻŚſ ƩŶƯ Żř Ţſř šŹŚŞƗ ŶƯŚƄǀě ƶŤƀƀĭ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ƹ ƶŤƀƀĭƽřƶƗƺưŬƯŹŵŚƸƳōŹŵŢƫŚůźǀƜŤƯƶĩƾƿŚƷƮŤƀǀſ źƷ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ŹƺƔƴƯ ƶŝ >çå@ ŶƴĩƾƯ źǀǀƜţ ƱŚƯŻ Żř ƲǀǀƘţ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ƝřŶƷř ƹ ƮŤƀǀſ ƽřżūř řŶŤŝř ƾưŤƀǀſ
ƽŶƘŝƭŚĭŶƳƺƃƾƯƮǀſźţƆŴƄƯƹƾƯƺƸƠƯƩŶƯƹƵŶƃ
1268732040128

Downloaded from ijiepm.iust.ac.ir at 16:17 IRST on Saturday November 4th 2017

Downloaded from ijiepm.iust.ac.ir at 16:17 IRST on Saturday November 4th 2017

Źŵ ƾƬƿŹ ƪƤƳƹƪưů ƶĪŞƃ ŢǀƟźƓ źŝ źŧƺƯ ƪƯřƺƗ ƶƫŚƤƯ Ʋƿř Źŵ ŢſřƵŶƃƪǀƬŰţƮŤƀǀſƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝŹŚŝƪưůƂŴŝ
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ƶŝ źŬƴƯŶƳřƺţƾƯ ŚƷƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ ƹ ŚƷƲĭřƹ ƵŶƄƳ ƽżƿŹƶƯŚƳźŝ ƂƿřżƟř
ŵŵźĭƮŤƀǀſƾƿřŹŚĩƂƷŚĩ ƶŝŵƺūƺƯŢǀƟźƓƒƠůŚŝŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƶƫŚƤƯƲƿřŹŵ ƵŶƃƶŤƟźĭźƔƳŹŵƽŹƹƵźƸŝƂƿřżƟřŹŵźŧƺƯƪůƵřŹĨƿƱřƺƴƗ ƽŚƷƮŤƀǀſ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ źŝ ƾƴŤŞƯ ƾƬƇř ƩŶƯ ƶĩ ŚŬƳō Żř Ţſř ƪůŹŵƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƽŚƷƁƹŹŢſřŶƯŚƄǀěƶŤƀƀĭ ŻřžěƾƿřŹŚĩŵƺŞƸŝƱřżǀƯƹŢſřƶŤƟźĭŹřźƣƵŵŚƠŤſřŵŹƺƯƶƫŚƀƯ
ƵŶƃ ƾŝŚƿŻŹř ŚƷ Ƶŵřŵ ƾƄƃƺě ƪǀƬŰţ Żř ƵŵŚƠŤſř Śŝ ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ
Ţſř ŵƺƃƾƯŹƹźƯƶƫŚƤƯƕƺƋƺƯŚŝƎŞţźƯŵƺūƺƯšŚǀŝŵřřŶŤŝřƶƯřŵřŹŵ Ƶŵřŵ ŭźƃƢǀƤŰţ ƁƹŹ ƽŵŚƸƴƄǀě ƁƹŹ ƾƬĩ śƺģŹŚģ žĜſ ŵŹƺƯŹŵįŵŚƸƴƄǀěƁƹŹƽźǀĭŹŚĪŝƾĮƳƺĮģéƂŴŝŹŵŵƺƃƾƯ
ŪƿŚŤƳƹƵŶƃƵŵřŵŭźƃƾƯLjſřƽŹƺƸưūƾƬƿŹƪƤƳƹƪưůƶĪŞƃ ƵŶƯōŢſŶŝŪƿŚŤƳŮǀƋƺţƹŦŰŝƶŝêƂŴŝŵŵźĭƾƯƶŗřŹřƪƇŚů
ƶƫŚƤƯƾƳŚƿŚěƂŴŝŜƫŚƐƯƽźǀĭƶŬǀŤƳƹƽŶƴŝƖưūŵŹřŵƅŚƈŤųř ŶƃŚŝƾƯ
ƕƺƋƺƯšŚǀŝŵřźŝƽŹƹźƯç
ƾƋŚƿŹƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƽŚƷƩŶƯƪưƗŹŵƶĩŶƷŵƾƯƱŚƄƳšŚƤǀƤŰţ Źŵ ƹ ŶƴŤƀǀƳ ƵŵŚƠŤſř ƪŝŚƣ ƾƘƯŚū ŹƺƐŝ ƾƬƿŹ ƪƤƳƹƪưů ƽřźŝ ŹŵŶƳźǀĭƾƯŹřźƣƵŵŚƠŤſřŵŹƺƯľŚŞƫŚƛƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƽŚƷƩŶƯƉƺƗ
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ƶǀŞƃƞƬŤŴƯƽŚƷƩŶƯ>ë@Ŷſř>ê@ŢſřƵŶƃŚƷƵŵřŵŢƿźƿŶƯ
ŢſřƵŵźĩƾſŹźŝřŹƲƷōƵřŹŹŵƽŻŚſ
ŹƺƔƴƯƶſƽřźŝŚƷŹŚƐƣŢĩźůƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ>ì@ƲǀţŹŚƯƶƫŚƤƯŹŵ
ŹŚƐƣ ŵźĪƬưƗ ƶŞſŚŰƯ ƽřźŝ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ŵƺƃƾƯ ƭŚŬƳř šƹŚƠŤƯ ŹƺƔƴƯƶŝƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃŚƷŹŚƐƣŢĩźůƽŶƴŞƳŚƯŻ ŢƸūƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ƪǀƬŰţƽřźŝƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƩŶƯ>í@ŚƳŹƹLJŚĭŢǀƟźƓƪǀƬŰţƹƶƿżŬţ ƩŶƯĨƿ>æåî@ŹƺƬǀţƹƱƺſźŤěŢſřƵŵźĩƶŗřŹřƎųŢǀƟźƓ ŻřƾĪƿŶƳŵřŵƶŗřŹřŚƷŹŚƐƣŢĩźůƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƽřźŝƶŤƟŚƿŢųŚſ Ţſř ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ŚƷŹŚƐƣ Ţĩźů ƽŶƴŞƳŚƯŻ ƽřźŝ ŪƿřŹ ƽŚƷŹřżŝř
ƽŹŚƤƠƫřƹŷƲƀůƹƵřƺųźǀųƱŚƯŚſźǀƯřƪǀƬŰţƹƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƾƤǀƠƬţŵźĪƿƹŹŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝƲƷōƵřŹƾƿřŹŚĩŵƺŞƸŝçêë

ƶǀůŚƳ żŬŝ řřũ ƲƷō ƵřŹ ƶǀůŚƳ źƷ ƶƫŚƤƯ Ʋƿř Źŵ ŵƺƃ ƕƺūŹ
Decision Making ƵŶƳźǀĭƮǀưƈţŶůřƹĨƿƱřƺƴƗƶŝƱřŶƷřŻ
ƪǀƬŰţƁƹŹŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝƶĩŢſřƵŶƃƶŤƟźĭźƔƳŹŵUnit ŵŵźĭƾƯƾŝŚƿŻŹřŚƸƳōƾŞƀƳƾƿřŹŚĩŚƷƵŵřŵƾƄƃƺě
ƽŵŚƸƴƄǀěƁƹŹƽřźūřé řřũƾƬƿŹƶĪŞƃƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃæé
ƽŹřŵźŝƵźƸŝƶƠǀƓƹŢƧźůƹźǀſƪĩƵŹřŵřřřũƲƷōƵřŹŹŵ
ŵŹřŵƵŶƸƗźŝřŹƾƬƿŹƪƤƳƹƪưůšŚƯŶųƶŗřŹřƹšŚƳŚĪƯřŻř ŢſřšŹƺƇƲƿřƶŝřřũƾƬƿŹƪƤƳƹƪưůƶĪŞƃŹŵŹŚŝƪưůƶƿƹŹ ŵƺųƾƫŚųƹŹřŵŹŚŝƽŚƷƲĭřƹƽŵƺūƺƯŮŞƇŻƹŹźƷŚƷƵŚĮŤƀƿřƶĩ Ʋƿř żǀƳ ƶǀůŚƳ ƩźŤƴƧ ƹ Ƶŵźĩ ƭLjƗřƱŚƃŵƺų ƶǀůŚƳ ƩźŤƴƧ ƶŝ řŹ ŶƿŚưƳ ƾƯ žƨƟ ŢƧźů ƹ źǀſ ƵŹřŵř ƽżƧźƯ ƩźŤƴƧ ƶŝ řŹ ŹŚƯō ƽŚƷŢƿƺƫƹř žƲƷōƵřŹ ƽŚƷŢſŚǀſ ƶŝ ƶūƺţ Śŝ żǀƳ ƽżƧźƯ ƩźŤƴƧ ƾųźŝƭřżƗřŹƺŤſŵƹƵŵƺưƳƆŴƄƯřŹƱŚƿźŤƄƯƽŚƷŚƋŚƤţƲǀƯŐţ ľLJƺưƘƯŵƺƃƾƯƵŵřŵŻŚǀƳŵŹƺƯƽŚƷƵŚĮŤƀƿřƶŝƾƫŚųƽŚƷƲĭřƹŻř
ƪưů řŹ ŹřŵŹŚŝ ƽŚƷƲĭřƹ ƶƧ ƽŹŚƐƣ ƱŚưƷ Śŝ ƾƫŚų ƽŚƷƲĭřƹ
ŶƳƺƃƾƯŚŬŝŚūŶƴƧƾƯ šŹƺƇƲƿřƶŝƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃƩŶƯŢųŚſƽřźŝƽŵŚƸƴƄǀěƮŤƿŹƺĮƫř
ĨƿƶŝŏŶŞƯƵŚĮŤƀƿřĨƿŻřŹŚŝƪưůƽřźŝŚƋŚƤţĨƿřŶŤŝřƶĩŢſř
ƽŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţžĜſŵƺƃƾƯŢſřƺųŹŵƆŴƄƯŶƈƤƯƵŚĮŤƀƿř ƵŶƃƶƀƿŚƤƯŏŶŞƯƵŚĮŤƀƿřŹŵŵƺūƺƯƽŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţŚŝŻŚǀƳŵŹƺƯ ƽƹŚƀƯŚƿźŤĭŹżŝŏŶŞƯƵŚĮŤƀƿřŹŵŵƺūƺƯƽŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţźĭřƹ
ƲĭřƹƵŶƃŢſřƺųŹŵŵřŶƘţƶŝšŹƺƈƳōŹŵŶƃŚŝƾŤſřƺųŹŵŵřŶƘţ
ŵƺƃƾƯƵŵřŵƆǀƈŴţƽŹŚŝ
Źŵ ŹŚŝ Ʋƿř ƪưů ƽřźŝ ƽƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ Śƿō ƶĩ ŵƺƃƾƯ ƾſŹźŝ žĜſ Źŵ ƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ źĭř ƩŚů źǀų Śƿ Ţſř ŽźŤſŵ Źŵ ŏŶŞƯ ƵŚĮŤƀƿř žĜſ ƹ ƵŶƃ ƽźǀĭŹŚŝ ŚƷŹŚŝ řŶŤŝř šŹƺƇ Ʊō Źŵ ŶƃŚŝ ŽźŤſŵ ƶĪƴƿř Żř žě ŵƺƃƾƯ ƭřżƗř ŶƈƤƯ ƵŚĮŤƀƿř Ţưſ ƶŝ ƽŹŚŝ ŹŚƐƣ
ƱōŹŚŝƹƵŶƃřŶūƱōƽŚƷƲĭřƹřŶŤŝřŶǀſŹŶƈƤƯƵŚĮŤƀƿřƶŝŹŚƐƣ
ŵŵźĭƾƯŵřŻōƱōƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫžĜſŵƺƃƾƯƶǀƬŴţ řŶūƽŚƷƲĭřƹŹƺƄĩŵƺūƺƯƶƿƹŹƢŝŚƐƯƶĩŢſřƲƿřƮƸƯƶŤĪƳ ŶƈƤƯƵŚĮŤƀƿřƶŝƹŶƴƳŚƯƾƯƾƣŚŝŶƈƤƯƵŚĮŤƀƿřŹŵŹŚƐƣŻřƵŶƃ ƶŝƵŚĮŤƀƿřƲƿřŻřŹŚŝƪưůƽřźŝŚƋŚƤţĨƿźĭřŚţŶƳƺƃƾƯŹřŸĭřƹ
ƲƿřŻřŢſřƺųŹŵŵŹƺƯŵřŶƘţƶŝŢƃřŵŵƺūƹźĮƿŵƵŚĮŤƀƿřĨƿ
ŶƳƺƃƵŵřŵƆǀƈŴţŚƋŚƤţƱōƶŝŚƷƲĭřƹ ƹ ŚƋŚƤţ řřũ ƾƬƿŹ ƶĪŞƃ ŹŵŹŚŝ ƪưů ƮŤƀǀſ ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ƽřźŝ ŻŚǀƳŵŹƺƯƽŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţƹŶƈƤƯƹŏŶŞƯŵŚƸƳƱřƺƴƗƶŝŚƷƲĭřƹ ŹŚŝƪưůƹƽźǀĭŹŚŝƹƶǀƬŴţƪưƗŢǀƇƺƈųƱřƺƴƗƶŝŚƋŚƤţźƷ ƹ ŵƹŹƹ ƹ ƁŹŚƠſ ƩŚſŹř ƹ ŢƟŚƿŹŵ ŢǀƫŚƘƟ ƱřƺƴƗ ƶŝ ŶƈƤƯ ƶŝ
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ŹŚƔŤƳř ƱŚƯŻ ƲǀĮƳŚǀƯ ƹ ŶƯŚƄǀě ƱřƺƴƗ ƶŝ ƵŚĮŤƀƿř Żř ŹŚƐƣ ũƹźų ŢſřƵŶƃƶŤƟźĭźƔƳŹŵŢƫŚůźǀƜŤƯƱřƺƴƗƶŝŚƋŚƤţ
Ţſř ƽźţƺǀĜƯŚĩ ƩŶƯ ŢųŚſ ƹ ƽŵƹŹƹ ƽŚƷƵŵřŵ ƪǀƬŰţ
ƹŶƴŤƀƷƽŶƘŝƪůřźƯƩŶƯŹŚŞŤƗřƹŢŰƇƲǀǀƘţƹƾƴǀŝŻŚŝ ŢſŚƷƾūƹźųƪǀƬŰţƹƩŶƯƽřźūřƾƳŚƿŚěƶƬůźƯ

ƾůřźƏŻřƵŵŚƠŤſřŚŝƶĪŞƃŢǀƟźƓźŝźŧƺƯƪƯřƺƗƪǀƬŰţ 
ƽŶǀƠƯƽŚƷƁƹŹŻřƾƨƿšŚƄƿŚƯŻōƾůřźƏƁƹŹšŚƄƿŚƯŻō źŝ ƶƧ řŹ ƽŶǀƬƧ ƽŚƷźǀƜŤƯ ƱřƺţƾƯ Ʊō ƶƬǀſƹ ƶŝ ƶƧ Ţſř ŵƺưƳ ƾƿŚſŚƴƃ ŵŹřŸĭƾƯ źŧř ŶƴƿōźƟ źƔƳ ŵŹƺƯ ƾƠǀƧ ƶƈŴƄƯ ŵřŶƘţŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţƪǀŞƣŻřƽŵŚƿŻƪƯřƺƗƾƬƿŹƶĪŞƃĨƿŹŵ ƹŜǀƃŹŚƐƣŢƗźſƽźǀĭŹŚŝƹƶǀƬŴţƱŚƯŻšŶƯŚƷƺǀţƺƯƺĪƫ Źŵ źǀſ ƱŚƯŻ šŶƯ ƹ ƥLjŝ ƽŵƹŶƀƯ ƱŚƯŻ šŶƯ ŜƫŚƛ ŻřźƟ ƶƫŚƤƯ Ʋƿř Źŵ ƶĩ ŶƳŹřŸĭźǀŧŐţ ƶĪŞƃ ŢǀƟźƓ źŝ ƾƳřźŰŝ ƥLjŝ
ŻřƶĩƩƹřźŤƯřŹŚěéƱřźƿřƾƬƿŹƪƤƳƹƪưůƶĪŞƃƪǀƬŰţƽřźŝ ŢſřƵŶƃƶŤƟźĭźƔƳŹŵŶƴƃŚŝƾƯƪƯřƺƗƲƿźţźŧƺƯ

ƶƴǀƸŝ ŶƴƿōźƟ Źŵ ŚƷƲĭřƹ ŵřŶƘţ ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ ƩŶƯ ƶƘſƺţ 
ƽŻŚſ ƶƴǀƸŝ ƁƹŹ Żř ƵŶǀĤǀě ŢǀƷŚƯ Śŝ ƾƿŚƷƮŤƀǀſ ƽŻŚſ
ƶŝ řŹ ƾƳřƹřźƟ ƽźƿŸěƝŚƐƘƳř ƶĩ ŵƺƃƾƯ ƵŵŚƠŤſř ƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝŹƺƔƴƯƶŝƲƿřźŝŚƴŝŶƴƃŚŝƾƯřŹřŵƪŗŚƀƯƪůŹƺƔƴƯ
ƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝ ĨǀƴĪţ Żř řřũ ƾƬƿŹ ƶĪŞƃ Źŵ ŹŚŝ ƪưů ƮŤƀǀſ
ŢſřƵŶƃƵŵŚƠŤſřƽŻŚſƶǀŞƃ

ƾƄƃƺě ƪǀƬŰţ ƽŚƷƁƹŹ Żř ƵŵŚƠŤſř Śŝ ƾƿřŹŚĩ ƾŝŚƿŻŹř 
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ŚƷƲĭřƹŵřŶƘţƽŻŚſƶƴǀƸŝƩŶƯƶƘſƺţèé
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Downloaded from ijiepm.iust.ac.ir at 16:17 IRST on Saturday November 4th 2017

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Ŝǀĩźţ Śŝ ARIMA ƽŻŚſƩŶƯ Żř ƾĮŤƀŝřƹ ƹ ƾĮŤƀŞưƷŵƺų Ʋƿř
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ŢſřƵŶƃƵŵŚƠŤſř
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ƶŗřŹř ŚƷƵŵřŵ ƾƄƃƺě ƾƬǀƬŰţ ƁƹŹ ƝřŶƷř Żř ƾĪƿ ƶĩ ŚŬƳō Żř
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